Renegade Conservatory Guy

According to the latest annual report from Palmer Market Research, the new build market for windows, doors and conservatories shows a severe contraction, and although the rate of decline will ease in 2009, a general recovery will only be likely in 2010.

The knock-on effects for the UK glazing industry are already being felt quite clearly. Palmer has a stark forecast for the window and double glazing market. It is set to suffer a huge drop of 32% in 2008, which is a direct reflection of housing starts, but then to perform marginally better as the percentage of starts in houses rises at the expense of flats.

A continued drop of 3% to 0.96 million frames is predicted for 2009, which is a dramatic indication of performance as this would be the lowest level achieved since 1946. It will only be by 2010 that growth will return, but that will only be by 5%.

While it still has a dominant share of approximately 66% of the overall market, PVCU is expected to suffer a substantial fall of 37% in 2008, followed by a slight recovery of 2% next year. Aluminium has enjoyed a resurgence in recent years, mainly due to the growth in city centre apartment blocks, but it will have a setback in 2008, dropping by 19%, followed by 18% in 2009. The last major window material – wood – will have a bad period in the new build sector as well with a drop of 24% this year and zero growth in 2009.

As far as the doors sector is concerned, the report sees reversals in almost all the sectors, ie PVCU, steel, aluminium and wood (although composites might escape in 2008-9), before recovery in 2010. Overall, the entrance door market is set to decline by 22% in 2008, and drop by another 12% next year. This means the market will be at a record low of 220,000. The same sharp fall will also be experienced in the patio, sliding door and hinged door sectors.

Still having a relatively modest share of the market, conservatories had a good year in new build housing in 2007 when growth of nearly 33% to 5,200 was experienced; the highest number since 2003. Installed value grew from £19 to £26m. The expansion was a little lopsided as 62% of the market was in the South of England. Palmer predicts a 12% decline in 2008 and a further 3% fall in 2009 before growth resumes in 2010. However, it will not be until 2011 that the market is greater than in 2007

Commenting on the report, Robert Palmer stated: “This makes for rather grim reading and we have had to take into account this year what appears to be a much bleaker picture than a year ago. Our forecast is for a 25% decline in 2008 as housing starts plummet, to £445m. A further 10% fall is forecast for 2009 to £401m and 1% to £397m in 2010 (all values are at 2007 prices). ‘Recovery’ as such by 2010 will still mean that the new build market will be operating at a lower level than in 2007 which must give all those operating in this sector some cause for concern.”